Trump's cancellation of planned strikes on Iran and his claim that a peace deal could be signed in Europe this weekend triggered a sharp risk-on rally globally. The Sensex surged nearly 1,000 points at open, the Nifty reclaimed 23,400, and Brent crude slid to around $89, down over 4% on the week. The rupee strengthened 65 paise to 95.20. For India, a sustained drop in crude directly eases the import bill, supports the current account, and gives the RBI room to manoeuvre. Financials, aviation, and consumer discretionary led the rally, the sectors most leveraged to lower energy costs.

US inflation hit 4.2% in May but the split inside the number matters. The Bureau of Labour Statistics released May CPI on June 10, putting the annual rate at 4.2%, the highest since April 2023 and the third consecutive monthly acceleration. The headline is being driven almost entirely by energy: prices up 23.5% year-on-year, gasoline up 40.5%, fuel oil up 58.9%, all a direct consequence of the West Asia conflict. The important nuance: core CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in at just 2.9%, below expectations. This tells you the inflation is oil-caused, not broad-based. Markets initially sold off, then partially recovered on the benign core print. The Fed message is unchanged, no cuts in 2026 but a ceasefire that brings oil down could change this picture quickly.

SpaceX will be listed on Nasdaq today, the largest IPO in stock market history. Priced at $135 per share on June 11, SpaceX raised $75 billion at a market cap of $1.77 trillion, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion raise, the previous record. It trades today as SPCX. Elon Musk retains over 82% voting control. The S-1 revealed plans to deploy AI data centres in space via a 1-million satellite network as early as 2028. Investment banks reported immense demand through the roadshow. The first days of trading will be closely watched, a strong open lifts global risk appetite and validates AI infrastructure valuations broadly. A stumble would rattle tech-heavy portfolios and sentiment across emerging markets.

Fed meeting June 17-18, not the decision, the tone. With CPI at 4.2% and three consecutive monthly accelerations, a rate hold is completely certain. What markets will actually trade on is what newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says in the press conference. Any signal that the Fed is comfortable tolerating elevated inflation under political pressure will move bond markets hard. A hawkish statement hinting at a rate hike before year-end would send EM currencies and equities sharply lower. For India, FIIs already sold Rs 5,553 crore in a single day this week, the direction of Warsh's guidance on June 18 will set the tone for foreign flows for the next two months.

India CPI for May releases today and it will sting. MoSPI publishes May 2026 inflation data this afternoon. April CPI was 3.48%, but May is forecast to climb toward 4%, the first reading to partially capture the May 15 petrol price hike and gold duty shock. Food inflation was already running at 4.2% in April and is expected to remain elevated. If today's print crosses 4%, it materially reduces the RBI's room to cut rates in August and would confirm that FY27 inflation is tracking above the MPC's 4% target. The full impact of the fuel hike will only appear in June's CPI, due in July, meaning this number is likely the first of several uncomfortable prints.