In times of geopolitical uncertainty such as the ongoing tensions in West Asia, market volatility often rises, making investors understandably cautious about their portfolios. During such periods, preserving capital and maintaining liquidity become more important than chasing high returns.
For investors feeling uneasy and looking to temporarily shift their money into safer avenues, the choice of instrument should largely depend on the intended time horizon.
1. Liquid Funds
For very short durations, typically up to 6 months - liquid funds can be a suitable option. These funds invest in high-quality, short-term money market instruments and aim to provide stability with minimal volatility.
Historically, liquid funds in India have delivered returns in the range of 5% to 7% annualized, depending on the interest rate cycle. While returns may be modest, they offer easy access to funds and relatively low risk.
These are taxed at the income tax slab rate of the investor but in such short timeframes, taxation must be a secondary consideration compared to capital preservation and liquidity.
2. Arbitrage Funds
For slightly longer horizons, around 6 to 12 months, arbitrage funds can be a compelling alternative. These funds take advantage of price differences between cash and derivatives markets, resulting in relatively stable and consistent returns with low directional market risk.
Over time, arbitrage funds have typically generated returns in the range of 6% to 8% annualized, making them competitive with short-term debt instruments.
More importantly, arbitrage funds are taxed as equity funds (at 20% for short term and 12.5% for long term capital gains), which can offer better post-tax returns compared to traditional debt-oriented options, especially for investors in higher tax brackets.
In uncertain times, the focus should not be on timing the market, but on aligning investments with one’s risk tolerance and time horizon. Temporary allocation to low-risk instruments like liquid and arbitrage funds can help investors stay disciplined, avoid panic-driven decisions, and re-enter growth assets with greater confidence when stability returns. Further, you can also look to do a 3-6 month STP from the liquid or arbitrage fund into equity funds to take advantage of the falling markets.